Today’s $AMPL Rebase is 10 Months in the Making, Are you Ready?
Remember that CoinGeck thing I mentioned in my previous article? Where if you go to the $AMPL page, it will show you the market cap chart by default?
It’s cool stuff, but it’s not exactly the thing we want…
Yes, you guessed it.
Guys want a proper $AMPL supply chart.
Not a price chart.
Not a market cap chart.
But the one that shows $AMPL supply and just that. Unfortunately, there aren’t too many options to choose from today.
For one, we have https://www.ampleforth.org/dashboard/:
Official $AMPL supply chart
And we also have this one from Dune Analytics:
Total $AMPL supply chart
Notice how the $AMPL supply is bullishly consolidating with higher lows and higher highs since it peaked in mid-2020? It kind of looks like it wants to for a higher high, doesn’t it?
Why Today’s $AMPL Rebase is so Important?
In that same previous article mentioned above, I dove deep into $AMPL’s expansion cycles. If you haven’t read it yet, be sure to check it out before we continue.
Did you read it?
Okay great. Now that you’re well versed on $AMPL’s expansion cycles, let’s dive even deeper.
Since the first great expansion, $AMPL supply has been consolidating for over 10 months and we just touched the diagonal resistance here:
And here, just to be sure both graphs are on the same page.
Again, these are the only two $AMPL supply charts available to us and they are non-interactive. You pretty much gotta make your own analysis in Microsoft Paint… which limits you to simple trend lines and horizontal support and resistance lines.
THIS goes to show how early we are in the elastic supply space in general.
There are not many tools for conducting advanced analysis on $AMPL supply. Not like with Bitcoin and Ethereum, where we have multiple on-chain indicators, charts, and tools that provide deeper insight into potential price and supply movements.
Oh no. Elastic supply assets like $AMPL are still so nascent, nobody is paying attention yet.
So, what do we have that we can make use of?
- $AMPL supply data and charts — link
- $AMPL price data and charts — link
- $AMPL market cap data and charts — link
- $AMPL rebase data and charts — link
- $AML swaps per day data and charts — link
- $AMPL DEX volume data and charts — link
Now, let me show you this:
$AMPL historical rebases (top) and $AMPL swaps per day (bottom) — Source
Look at $AMPL’s 1st major supply expansion in mid-2020 and compare it to today.
Today is peanuts in comparison, isn’t it?
We haven’t experienced anything even close to that 1st expansion cycle, both in the volume of $AMPL swaps per day and the extent of positive rebases.
That said, with $AMPL at just $1.20 today and its supply only at 487M, you can still buy yourself a ticket into the 2nd great expansion that is on the horizon.
And yes, it is on the horizon.
Recent $AMPL rebases (Source)
For nearly a month now $AMPL has been experiencing a series of positive rebases and that’s because people aren’t selling $AMPL. Well sure, there is some selling. But most everyone is accumulating in anticipation of the 2nd great expansion.
However, ‘everyone’ is still a small group of people (see ‘today’ and ‘red arrow’ again in the chart above). And that’s because there is just a small group of people who follow the same supply chart as I do.
What Happens Next?
Am I euphoric? A bit, yes.
How high can $AMPL supply get in the second great expansion?
Again, pardon my tools, but that’s all that’s available for now. But I promise you, I will work on my own set of charts in the future.
Now, in the chart above I depicted a $1.5B supply. Is that even possible?
I think it’s 100% achievable.
Especially given the fact that it’s only a 2x of the supply ATH from mid-2020. And while literally every DeFi blue chip (including $ETH) is way above its mid-2020 prices, the only one that remains sub 2x is $AMPL.
Therefore, $AMPL is due for a major supply expansion. In fact, I believe that $AMPL’s next run UP might be the one closing out the current bull run… which means it would be absolutely legendary.
However, while I don’t know exactly how it’s all going to play out, I am pretty convinced it will be an aggressive uptick movement rather than a slow climb over the next couple of weeks.
Now that you know what I think, what do you think? Let me know in the comment section below.